Strategic Forecasting for a
New Therapeutic Launch
Customer is a global pharmaceutical company with a pre-launch therapeutic for a chronic autoimmune disease. There is a need to understand current HCP prescribing trends and anticipate demand for the product before it is launched given current resources.
Approach:
- Identify Data: Everything begins with data. In this case we knew we would be leveraging anonymized patient-level data, projected claims volume, and qualitative survey results
- Market Understanding: Deepen the understanding of the market landscape. Understand what therapies patients are currently receiving, which HCP clinical behaviors are prevalent, and how patients navigate their care journeys.
- Access Dynamics: Incorporated how internal (e.g., field team size) and external (e.g., other competitor upcoming launches) factors play into forecasting.
- Scenario Planning: built in all variables into a business insights tool to allow for scenario testing and to keep forecasting flexible as the client neared launch.
Impact:
Strategic forecasting for a new-to-market therapy enables agile market adaptation and ensures timely patient access
- Identified revenue expectations based on 3 sources of business of new patient starts, switches from other therapies in the same product classes, and switches from different product classes
- Determined rate limiting factors such as a smaller workforce than needed to achieve optimal results and HCP sentiment from the survey
- Delivered a turnkey business intelligence dashboard that provides flexibility related to upcoming market events, changing launch dates, and more
Top Differentiators/Benefits:
- Unlimited data access allowed the team to profile physicians treating these patients beyond the market basket – looking at a full picture of the HCPs’ clinical behaviors
- Blocked drug visibility through closed sources allowed the team to form more comprehensive patient journeys
- Compass Prescriber’s ability to project on both Mx-benefit and Rx-benefit therapies allowed the team to understand the full market volumes to tied anticipated revenue to
